Wall Street didn’t have too many expectations in October. There were signs of the beginning of a recession and the GM strike had people worried. Economists estimated maybe a little growth, around 89,000. With a 42,000 job decline in the auto part manufacturing and another 20,000 being laid off, expectations weren’t too high.
As we woke up on November 1st, we were greeted with good news. The jobs report blew well past the dismal expectations. It’s a good indication that the economy is still humming along. Some of it might have to do with increased holiday hiring towards the latter part of October. This is the time of year when department and retail stores across the country bring on more help.
This comes with even better news. The average hourly earnings rose a bit as well. They’re up 3% from this time last year. This report pretty much alleviates any fears that the economy was on the brink of a recession. Earlier in the summer, there were rumors that we might be hurdling towards a recession.
“As long as consumers feel confident, the economy should stay on track,” said Tony Bedikian, managing director of Citizens Bank. And consumers do feel fairly confident going into the holiday season. More people have jobs today than we’ve seen in decades. This bodes well for the president as we enter the first phases of the impeachment inquiry.
President Trump tweeted: “Wow, a blowout JOBS number just out, adjusted for revisions and the General Motors strike, 303,000. This is far greater than expectations. USA ROCKS!”
Job Growth and Politics
If these type of job numbers continue throughout the next year, it should help the president big time. The economy is usually the number one issue for voters. If it’s humming along, then Trump should be able to keep his support. The Democrats, on the other hand, give credit to Obama only for all this growth. But Obama never saw these types of numbers.
While Obama might’ve helped get the ball rolling, it didn’t really pick up speed until Trump was elected. His election alone increased a lot of economic confidence. In fact, when many predicted the stock market would crash, it soared. Promises of lower taxes and cut regulations, both of which Trump accomplished, only helps to inspire economic growth.
Despite the good numbers so far, they could be better. The trade war with China and increased tariffs have hurt us. Farmers and agriculture in particular are struggling. Tariffs are essentially an additional tax, making things more expensive. This added expense is also why economists feared an economic and job downturn. So far, it hasn’t happened yet.
