It doesn’t seem to take much to force economy in a downward spiral. A lot of the great depressions and recessions of our economy happened in a single moment. The stock market can tank and bubbles burst and there’s really very little anyone can do about it. There are often a few indicators, but they aren’t always accurate.
Even if there is a recession, no one knows how bad it will be. It might not result in job cuts, but economic growth can slow down tremendously or even stop for a period of time. But if it is a bad recession, is your job at risk of being cut? Could you lose your position? Are you prepared for the next downturn to hit?
Make no mistake about it, the next recession is going to happen. The media is currently fueling speculation that a recession might hit soon, especially if the trade war doesn’t end in a timely manner. Let’s take a look at several indicators that would determine whether your job might be at risk.
Are You A New Employee?
Companies don’t necessarily go bankrupt during a recession, but if people are struggling and are not buying enough products, that means that business is going to slow down. When profits start going down, this is when bosses start getting really antsy and nervous. Jobs might be cut and layoffs happen when profits aren’t as strong as they should be.
Usually the first ones out the door are the newest hires, especially if you were just hired in the last three months. Companies spend a lot of money recruiting people, training them, and even offer a lot of perks to attract good workers. In the event of an economic downturn, these are the people who will lose their job first.
Recent College Graduates
If you have a bachelor’s degree or above, you’re more likely to keep your job. You’re more highly skilled than someone who came in off the street. But this factor is really determined by how long ago you graduated. Young college grads are most likely the very first to receive their pink slips. This is because they do not have as much work experience as someone else who has been there for several years.
Harry Holzer is an economist with the Brookings Institute and looked at the people who get hit the hardest during a recession. The answer is almost always young college grads. They have a degree and loads of student debt. This is what fueled the student loan debt to hit over $1.53 trillion mark during the Great Recession.
“Young people get hit the hardest during a recession and that will include young college grads. It will take them longer to find any job, and it will take longer for them to find the jobs they really like in terms of beginning a career,” said Holzer.
People who are new to the labor market “are most vulnerable to economic shock, by comparison, to people who are more established in their careers,” says Hamilton Project policy director Ryan Nunn. They “may have a more durable relationship with a particular employer and maybe can ride out the recession a little more easily.”
If you’re young, you have more concerns about keeping your job. Having a degree won’t save you when it’s time to make cuts. You are still green and need to gain more experience to be a safer choice to keep under their wings. Be diligent in the good times and you’ll thrive during the difficult times.