It’s hard to predict exactly how much candidates will spend on any future election, but it only seems to get more expensive. This year, the political war seems as if it will be even more angry and personal than ever before. The war will be over the estimated 1.2% of U.S. citizens who are largely undecided. According to Frank Luntz, a republican pollster, all the U.S. parties and the candidates will spend as much as $2 billion to reach them.
1.2% can swing a victory in any direction. In the rust belt alone, Michigan and Wisconsin went from being reliable blue states to swinging red. There was very little interest in voting for Hillary Clinton, so the margins in these states were tiny. The year before, these states went handedly towards Democrat Barack Obama, who won his first and second term.
Luntz says that around 6% of U.S. voters are considered “undecided.” The battle is really for them, as both sides know they aren’t going to sway the minds of the real decides. They always vote along party lines, no matter who the candidate is. If the party doesn’t put up an exciting candidate, they would rather stay home than vote for the other side.
Things are more partisan than ever. As a result of President Trump winning in 2016, both Republicans and Democrats seem to have run to their own corners, nearly to the extreme in many cases. Now the Dems are desperate to get Trump out of office for obvious reasons. The Republicans are desperate to keep Trump in office, who is possibly one of the most popular Republican presidents in U.S. history.
Luntz Believes More Money is Needed This Time Around
As stated previously, the real battle is for the small percentage of undecided voters. And all the money is going to go towards convincing them which side is the most moral and better for the country. The Democrats are going to run on getting rid of Trump, while the Republicans will focus on the great economy and play up Trump’s strengths.
“If you’re that undecided now when everybody else has made up their minds, it’s going to be very hard to move you,” Luntz said. “All this money and all this time and all this effort is going to be spent on 6% of the country.”
The election will inevitably come down to how the undecides feel about Trump’s presidency. Not everyone is 100% against him like some hardcore Dems are. Many are “conflicted, the ones that liked aspects of the Trump presidency, but not all of it, or the ones who disliked much of what he’s done.” It’s possible to like what the president has done without liking him as a person.
“I don’t think more money will be spent with more effort and more intensity on a smaller group of people than what will happen in this election,” Luntz said. “Because in the end, if you’re undecided in Texas or California or New York, you don’t matter. So, it’s 6% who are undecided in 20% of the states that could actually move.”
In the end, it’s a race to see who is the least extreme. Will a socialist agenda be the winning strategy for the left, or a more centrist message that grabs the undecideds? This is what the whole election will come down to.
